predicting

Pre-election polls are never good at — nor were they designed to be good at — predicting turnout, and by definition can’t account for late deciders.

A French trader reportedly won nearly $50 million after predicting Trump would win the popular vote, the Wall Street Journal reported.

But the right wing of Israeli politics has welcomed the president-elect’s appointment of Huckabee, seeing it as predicting another term of American policy highly favourable to their longstanding aims of holding on to territory in the West Bank and expanding settlements.

Pollster Nate Silver is already predicting a comeback from Democrats in 2028, pointing to “hidden good news” for the party in this year’s election results despite President-elect Donald Trump’s win.

But given the difficulties predicting the ebbs and flows of migration, how did numbers become so fundamental to the whole immigration debate?