forecasting

Through at least the end of the month, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an increased chance for above-average rainfall across much of California, but predictions stretching into mid-December become less clear.

"Sub-diurnal forecasting, meaning less than 24 hours, is mainly used for evacuation. This method gives us more accurate forecast probabilities compared to those that make predictions daily or over multiple days," Ahmed says.

"These are all based on probabilities, and the probability increases as the forecasting time decreases."

The LAO is forecasting a deficit of about $20 billion in 2026-27 and an even higher shortfall by 2028-29 of about $30 billion.

"We human beings are living in this boundary layer, so understanding and accurately modeling it is essential for storm forecasting and hazard preparedness," said author Qiusheng Li.