predictions

"Sub-diurnal forecasting, meaning less than 24 hours, is mainly used for evacuation. This method gives us more accurate forecast probabilities compared to those that make predictions daily or over multiple days," Ahmed says.

Through at least the end of the month, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecast an increased chance for above-average rainfall across much of California, but predictions stretching into mid-December become less clear.

But recent events, such as the Budget and now a higher-than-expected inflation rate, mean the markets have revised their predictions for when and how often those cuts will come.

Conventional approaches to storm forecasting involve large numerical simulations run on supercomputers incorporating mountains of observational data, and they still often result in inaccurate or incomplete predictions.

A household using a typical amount of gas and electricity will pay £1,736 a year from January, according to the forecaster, which is widely regarded for its accurate predictions.