gut feeling

I will refrain from going there—although, I must say, I am fighting a powerful gut feeling.

Then something happened which is hard to explain—you just follow your gut feeling.

I kinda go with that first gut feeling and then stick with it.

"There's a lot of debate about the impact of extensions but my gut feeling is that giving them hurts the job picture," said Nash.

An argument starts with a gut feeling, which leads you to seek out the evidence that supports or rejects your hunch.