incumbent

Four years later, at an unusual moment of national optimism, a whopping 62 percent expressed satisfaction—but George W. Bush beat incumbent Vice President Al Gore anyway.

"This decision ignores the market realities, and will only serve to protect incumbent marketplaces from competition."

Silver added that most incumbent parties are “unpopular” and tend to lose elections anyways.

Those ballots could impact the 41st Congressional District, where Republican incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert holds a lead over Democratic challenger Will Rollins.

There are certainly many other factors to consider in unpacking what happened in the 2024 election, including that it was just one element in a global trend of incumbent losses.