expected value

Trump Media’s expected value of $5 billion at the IPO swore at common sense, or at any traditional standard of securities valuation.

"But quantum physics says that there are always certain fluctuations. The fluctuations, i.e. the deviations from the expected value, are closely related to the temperature."

"We understand that signaling much more than this has no expected value given so much uncertainty that exists, both globally and locally," he said.

The researchers found that this shift to the surebet occurred mostly for the choices near the boundary where the expected value of the lottery was only slightly higher than the value of the surebet.

"If I really think that I should be trying to maximize expected values, that probably implies substantially riskier strategies than what seems intuitively right," he said in the June 4, 2020, podcast.