probability

On crypto-based platform Polymarket, traders are quietly increasing the implied probability of a full-blown AI-industry downturn before the end of the year, although expectations for a blowup are well below their earlier highs.

From MarketWatch ● Oct. 21, 2026

However, the probability of serious adverse health effects is still considered low.

From Los Angeles Times ● Oct. 21, 2026

Money markets price a high 83% probability of the Fed keeping the fed funds target rate range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, according to LSEG.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Oct. 20, 2026

In its next stages Spectr will be able to help plan operations, providing commanders a menu of options for how to carry out a mission as well as each suggestion’s probability of success.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Oct. 20, 2026

The probability of obtaining exactly one 4 among the three dice is likewise determined by breaking the event into the three mutually exclusive ways it can happen.

From "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences" by John Allen Paulos

The two movements overlap heavily in membership and ideas, sharing an emphasis on reasoning through evidence and probabilities, and a conviction that preventing human extinction should be a top priority.

From Barron's ● Oct. 2, 2026

Since all those probabilities are based on speculation, estimates range from 0% to nearly 100%.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Sep. 16, 2026

On the other end is the black swan — you do not know the possibilities or the probabilities.

From MarketWatch ● Sep. 15, 2026

Adapted for TV: There will be the use of augmented reality, athlete headshots, win probabilities and projected finishing positions to develop viewer experience.

From BBC ● Sep. 11, 2026

Still, the point is that all kinds of decisions can be cast into this framework and call for the informal evaluation of probabilities.

From "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences" by John Allen Paulos