probability

Betting markets price a 57% probability that early elections will be called this month but it’s not clear that will solve anything, Turner says.

“There is a reasonable probability that the upward pressure will persist.”

Based on their bets in futures markets, traders see a roughly 80% probability of two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed this year.

Traders in financial markets see a 96% probability of a rate cut this month.

Investors are increasingly turning to Polymarket for fast-changing probabilities that its bettors assign to future events, such as election results or the length of the government shutdown.